Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -1400 BTLR +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +2 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -12.3 (-10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (+10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -12.8 (-10.8) | 144.0 (+14.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -12.0 (-10.0) | 140.7 (+17.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -10.7 (-8.7) | 144.6 (+13.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -10.9 (-8.9) | 144.3 (+13.7) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | CONN 80 – 70 BTLR |
| Dec 17, 2025 | CONN 79 – 60 BTLR |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CONN 78 – 74 BTLR |
| Feb 7, 2024 | CONN 71 – 62 BTLR |
| Jan 5, 2024 | CONN 88 – 81 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-2 | 9-8 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 15.0 (#27) | 6.2 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#50) | 0.33 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#44) | 0.97 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#76) | 0.512 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.90 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 11.4% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.4% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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