Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | BTLR +575 CONN -850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +10 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -9.3 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -9.4 (-0.6) | 147.7 (+2.3) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -7.7 (-2.3) | 146.3 (+3.7) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -7.3 (-2.7) | 146.8 (+3.2) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -8.4 (-1.6) | 146.3 (+3.7) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2025 | CONN 79 – 60 BTLR |
| Jan 22, 2025 | CONN 80 – 78 BTLR |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CONN 78 – 74 BTLR |
| Feb 7, 2024 | CONN 71 – 62 BTLR |
| Jan 5, 2024 | CONN 88 – 81 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 34-6 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 17-3 |
| Home | 10-7 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.5 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#67) | 21.1 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#82) | 4.63 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#84) | 5.73 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#122) | 0.668 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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