Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -1650 BTLR +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +19 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -12.6 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (-15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -12.2 (+6.8) | 147.3 (-8.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -11.3 (+7.7) | 145.9 (-6.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -12.7 (+6.3) | 146.1 (-7.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -12.1 (+6.9) | 146.1 (-7.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | CONN 80 – 70 BTLR |
| Jan 22, 2025 | CONN 80 – 78 BTLR |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CONN 78 – 74 BTLR |
| Feb 7, 2024 | CONN 71 – 62 BTLR |
| Jan 5, 2024 | CONN 88 – 81 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-7 |
| Away | 9-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 77.5 |
| Massey | 20.3 (#9) | 12.2 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.63 (#7) | 2.07 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.67 (#7) | 2.93 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.676 (#7) | 0.579 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 43.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 14.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.84 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 40.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.7% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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