Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | BTLR +340 CONN -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +4 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -5.2 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -3.4 (-0.6) | 142.9 (+9.1) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -4.4 (+0.4) | 144.9 (+7.1) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -3.7 (-0.3) | 144.4 (+7.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -4.2 (+0.2) | 144.7 (+7.3) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | CONN 80 – 70 BTLR |
| Dec 17, 2025 | CONN 79 – 60 BTLR |
| Jan 22, 2025 | CONN 80 – 78 BTLR |
| Feb 7, 2024 | CONN 71 – 62 BTLR |
| Jan 5, 2024 | CONN 88 – 81 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-8 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#76) | 17.2 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#90) | 2.44 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#59) | 3.88 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#102) | 0.578 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 2.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 57.9% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 36.8% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.5% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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