Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -1600 BTLR +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +9 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -11.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (-20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -12.5 (-3.5) | 149.0 (-16.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -13.1 (-4.1) | 146.2 (-13.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -12.5 (-3.5) | 151.0 (-18.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -11.6 (-2.6) | 150.9 (-17.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | CONN 80 – 70 BTLR |
| Dec 17, 2025 | CONN 79 – 60 BTLR |
| Jan 22, 2025 | CONN 80 – 78 BTLR |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CONN 78 – 74 BTLR |
| Jan 5, 2024 | CONN 88 – 81 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 9-11 |
| Home | 17-0 | 12-6 |
| Away | 8-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 12-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W13 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 19.4 (#6) | 11.0 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.63 (#2) | 1.88 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.41 (#2) | 2.26 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.635 (#10) | 0.575 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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