Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | BTLR +196 CONN -240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +7 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -2.1 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (+16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -0.7 (-6.3) | 149.9 (+19.1) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -4.2 (-2.8) | 148.7 (+20.3) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -1.5 (-5.5) | 149.1 (+19.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -0.9 (-6.1) | 149.8 (+19.2) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | CONN 80 – 70 BTLR |
| Dec 17, 2025 | CONN 79 – 60 BTLR |
| Jan 22, 2025 | CONN 80 – 78 BTLR |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CONN 78 – 74 BTLR |
| Feb 7, 2024 | CONN 71 – 62 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 37-3 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 18-2 |
| Home | 12-6 | 17-0 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 12-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | W13 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 63.4 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#55) | 16.3 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#68) | 3.04 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#63) | 3.84 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#48) | 0.629 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 50.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 38.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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