Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | AF +350 SDSU -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +10 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -6.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -5.4 (-4.6) | 139.1 (-9.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -5.3 (-4.7) | 136.1 (-6.1) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -5.5 (-4.5) | 139.7 (-9.7) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -5.4 (-4.6) | 139.9 (-9.9) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | SDSU 88 – 54 AF |
| Dec 18, 2025 | SDSU 81 – 58 AF |
| Jan 23, 2025 | SDSU 77 – 76 AF |
| Jan 9, 2025 | SDSU 67 – 38 AF |
| Feb 7, 2024 | SDSU 77 – 64 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-9 | 15-1 |
| Away | 4-8 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 9-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#135) | 11.6 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#152) | 2.14 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#153) | 2.62 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#204) | 0.620 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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