Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | SDSU -4000 AF +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +29 | 105 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -23.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -18.6 (+10.4) | 131.2 (-26.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -19.9 (+9.1) | 129.8 (-24.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -17.3 (+11.7) | 132.0 (-27.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -17.7 (+11.3) | 132.4 (-27.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | SDSU 88 – 54 AF |
| Dec 18, 2025 | SDSU 81 – 58 AF |
| Jan 23, 2025 | SDSU 77 – 76 AF |
| Feb 7, 2024 | SDSU 77 – 64 AF |
| Jan 22, 2023 | SDSU 70 – 60 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-10 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 1-19 |
| Home | 12-3 | 3-13 |
| Away | 6-4 | 0-14 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 61.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#41) | -6.8 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#30) | -2.11 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.46 (#32) | -2.31 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.638 (#18) | 0.389 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 29.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.9% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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