Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | AF +750 SDSU -1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +1 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -15.3 (+14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.0 (+30.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -15.4 (+14.4) | 127.2 (+25.8) | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -14.4 (+13.4) | 126.5 (+26.5) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -14.8 (+13.8) | 123.1 (+29.9) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -14.2 (+13.2) | 125.6 (+27.4) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | SDSU 88 – 54 AF |
| Dec 18, 2025 | SDSU 81 – 58 AF |
| Jan 9, 2025 | SDSU 67 – 38 AF |
| Feb 7, 2024 | SDSU 77 – 64 AF |
| Jan 22, 2023 | SDSU 70 – 60 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 21-10 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 14-6 |
| Home | 3-13 | 12-3 |
| Away | 0-14 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.9 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#271) | 11.9 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.23 (#334) | 1.99 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.47 (#324) | 2.61 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.392 (#338) | 0.592 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 43.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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