Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU -9000 AF +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +23 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -21.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -17.4 (+5.6) | 142.0 (-3.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -19.3 (+3.7) | 140.3 (-1.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -16.3 (+6.7) | 140.7 (-1.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -17.0 (+6.0) | 142.3 (-3.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | SDSU 88 – 54 AF |
| Jan 23, 2025 | SDSU 77 – 76 AF |
| Jan 9, 2025 | SDSU 67 – 38 AF |
| Feb 7, 2024 | SDSU 77 – 64 AF |
| Jan 22, 2023 | SDSU 70 – 60 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 3-29 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 0-20 |
| Home | 14-2 | 3-15 |
| Away | 5-5 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L25 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 79.9 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#80) | -9.4 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#109) | -1.51 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#72) | -2.03 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#106) | 0.418 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 40.5% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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