Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | AF +350 SDSU -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +13 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -13.7 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -13.1 (+0.1) | 139.0 (+2.0) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -12.6 (-0.4) | 136.9 (+4.1) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -11.7 (-1.3) | 137.6 (+3.4) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -11.9 (-1.1) | 139.4 (+1.6) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | SDSU 88 – 54 AF |
| Dec 18, 2025 | SDSU 81 – 58 AF |
| Jan 23, 2025 | SDSU 77 – 76 AF |
| Jan 9, 2025 | SDSU 67 – 38 AF |
| Jan 22, 2023 | SDSU 70 – 60 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 11-7 |
| Home | 4-12 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-8 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#228) | 13.6 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#253) | 2.63 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#235) | 3.18 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#254) | 0.662 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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