Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | AF +1700 SDSU -4500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +34 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -22.3 (-11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -18.1 (-15.9) | 136.0 (+6.0) | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -14.9 (-19.1) | 138.6 (+3.4) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -16.2 (-17.8) | 134.3 (+7.7) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -18.4 (-15.6) | 135.3 (+6.7) | 11% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2025 | SDSU 81 – 58 AF |
| Jan 23, 2025 | SDSU 77 – 76 AF |
| Jan 9, 2025 | SDSU 67 – 38 AF |
| Feb 7, 2024 | SDSU 77 – 64 AF |
| Jan 22, 2023 | SDSU 70 – 60 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 0-20 | 14-6 |
| Home | 3-15 | 14-2 |
| Away | 0-12 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L25 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.9 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -13.4 (#343) | 12.0 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.95 (#330) | 2.09 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#316) | 2.99 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#294) | 0.598 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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