Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 118.5 Under |
| Money | SPU +100 NIA +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +2 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | NIA -0.1 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 115.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -1.3 (-0.7) | 123.7 (-7.7) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -1.3 (-3.3) | 120.4 (-4.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -0.7 (-1.3) | 122.6 (-6.6) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -0.6 (-1.4) | 124.1 (-8.1) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | SPU 71 – 43 NIA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NIA 78 – 68 SPU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | NIA 70 – 60 SPU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NIA 68 – 59 SPU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | SPU 72 – 67 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-10 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.9 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#308) | -4.3 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#307) | -0.75 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#311) | -1.10 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#304) | 0.466 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.6 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.1% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.1% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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