Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | NIA -125 SPU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +10 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | NIA -0.1 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -0.9 (+9.1) | 128.8 (+1.2) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -0.5 (+10.5) | 129.1 (+0.9) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -0.4 (+9.6) | 130.5 (-0.5) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -0.7 (+9.3) | 130.8 (-0.8) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | SPU 71 – 43 NIA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NIA 78 – 68 SPU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NIA 68 – 59 SPU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | SPU 72 – 67 NIA |
| Feb 26, 2023 | SPU 66 – 65 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 12-16 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 7-13 |
| Home | 6-7 | 6-6 |
| Away | 3-13 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#293) | -3.7 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#266) | -0.70 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#286) | -1.07 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#277) | 0.448 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 33.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.