Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | SPU -230 NIA +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +28 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -6.1 (+21.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -3.7 (+24.3) | 134.8 (-20.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -4.6 (+23.4) | 131.8 (-17.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -3.2 (+24.8) | 133.4 (-19.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -4.5 (+23.5) | 133.8 (-19.8) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2025 | NIA 78 – 68 SPU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | NIA 70 – 60 SPU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NIA 68 – 59 SPU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | SPU 72 – 67 NIA |
| Feb 26, 2023 | SPU 66 – 65 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-12 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 5-15 |
| Home | 13-1 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-10 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -12.2 (#332) | -13.6 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.29 (#326) | -2.48 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.22 (#342) | -3.45 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.384 (#329) | 0.394 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.0% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 28.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.5% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 19.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 62.2% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.0% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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