Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | SPU -210 NIA +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +10 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | SPU -6.7 (-16.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.0 (+20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -4.6 (-14.6) | 130.1 (+15.9) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -4.0 (-14.0) | 130.1 (+15.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -5.0 (-15.0) | 130.8 (+15.2) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -4.3 (-14.3) | 132.2 (+13.8) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | SPU 71 – 43 NIA |
| Jan 10, 2025 | NIA 70 – 60 SPU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NIA 68 – 59 SPU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | SPU 72 – 67 NIA |
| Feb 26, 2023 | SPU 66 – 65 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-16 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 6-14 |
| Home | 6-6 | 6-7 |
| Away | 6-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#274) | -10.0 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#267) | -1.70 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#279) | -2.36 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#284) | 0.429 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 37.9% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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