Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 118.5 Over |
| Money | NIA -200 SPU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +1 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | NIA -8.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -5.2 (-6.2) | 126.4 (+4.6) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -4.3 (-5.3) | 124.2 (+6.8) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -5.2 (-6.2) | 125.3 (+5.7) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -5.1 (-6.1) | 125.5 (+5.5) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | SPU 71 – 43 NIA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NIA 78 – 68 SPU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | NIA 70 – 60 SPU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NIA 68 – 59 SPU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | SPU 72 – 67 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-13 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 60.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 65.5 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#245) | -8.7 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#224) | -1.59 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#241) | -1.88 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#213) | 0.431 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 42.6% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 37.8% |
Game Analysis
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