But anyone who ever had heart, they wouldn't turn around and break it. "Sweet Jane" - Lou Reed
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference · Gallagher Center · February 26, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread NIA -4.5 Away covered
O/U 118.5 Over
Money NIA -200 / SPU +200
Model Predictions
Spread Total NIA win
Actual SPU +1 131 Lost
Massey NIA -8.0 (-9.0)
Massey Totals 117.8 (+13.2)
Bradley-Terry 85%
Weighted B-T 86%
Efficiency Plus ML NIA -4.3 (-5.3) 124.2 (+6.8) 58%
Baseline Tuned ML NIA -5.2 (-6.2) 125.3 (+5.7) 66%
Baseline ML NIA -5.1 (-6.1) 125.5 (+5.5) 63%
Baseline Plus ML NIA -5.2 (-6.2) 126.4 (+4.6) 63%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 7, 2025 SPU 7143 NIA
Mar 7, 2025 NIA 7868 SPU
Jan 10, 2025 NIA 7060 SPU
Feb 3, 2024 NIA 6859 SPU
Dec 2, 2023 SPU 7267 NIA

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NIA SPU
Overall 16-15 14-18
Conference 10-10 7-13
Home 9-4 8-6
Away 4-10 4-11
Neutral 3-1 2-1
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 64.2 60.9
Avg Pts Against 66.4 65.5
Massey -4.3 (#245) -8.7 (#316)
Bradley-Terry -0.47 (#224) -1.59 (#316)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.82 (#241) -1.88 (#311)
RPI 0.482 (#213) 0.431 (#310)
Shooting & Four Factors NIA SPU
FG% 44.2% 37.7%
3PT% 33.7% 27.8%
REB / G 30.2 35.1
OREB / G 7.6 13.6
AST / TO 0.90 0.82
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.0% 42.6%
TOV% 18.0% 19.8%
ORB% 25.3% 36.3%
FT Rate 22.3% 18.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.2% 49.5%
Opp TOV% 16.5% 19.7%
DRB% 72.3% 71.0%
Opp FT Rate 23.9% 37.8%

Game Analysis

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