Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | NIA -110 SPU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +5 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | SPU -0.1 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -1.1 (-3.9) | 128.9 (+10.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -3.7 (-1.3) | 124.1 (+14.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -0.7 (-4.3) | 132.1 (+6.9) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -1.2 (-3.8) | 132.5 (+6.5) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | SPU 71 – 43 NIA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NIA 78 – 68 SPU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | NIA 70 – 60 SPU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NIA 68 – 59 SPU |
| Feb 26, 2023 | SPU 66 – 65 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 5-9 | 8-5 |
| Away | 10-6 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 63.8 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#300) | -0.7 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#290) | -0.90 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.17 (#319) | -0.56 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#311) | 0.438 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 36.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 25.5 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 5.8 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 41.2% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 18.5% | 43.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 42.6% |
Game Analysis
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