Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | SPU -175 NIA +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +9 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | SPU -8.2 (-17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -4.6 (-13.6) | 134.0 (-7.0) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -5.4 (-14.4) | 134.9 (-7.9) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -5.9 (-14.9) | 136.1 (-9.1) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -5.7 (-14.7) | 136.1 (-9.1) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | SPU 71 – 43 NIA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NIA 78 – 68 SPU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | NIA 70 – 60 SPU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | SPU 72 – 67 NIA |
| Feb 26, 2023 | SPU 66 – 65 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 8-5 | 5-9 |
| Away | 8-8 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.8 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#187) | -5.9 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#193) | -1.00 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#180) | -1.35 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#185) | 0.449 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.9% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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