Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | IDST -120 PRST +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRST +7 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | IDST -2.4 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -0.4 (-7.4) | 149.1 (-12.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRST -0.5 (-6.5) | 147.5 (-10.5) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -0.9 (-7.9) | 147.4 (-10.4) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -0.7 (-7.7) | 148.6 (-11.6) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | PRST 85 – 78 IDST |
| Feb 3, 2026 | PRST 88 – 65 IDST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PRST 93 – 87 IDST |
| Feb 21, 2025 | IDST 82 – 74 PRST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PRST 76 – 59 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-11 |
| Home | 7-7 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-12 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#242) | -3.1 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#296) | -0.42 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#262) | -0.61 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.415 (#319) | 0.483 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 36.6% |
Game Analysis
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