And then my good friend Shaggy says "Come spend some time, family" "44/876" -- Shaggy & Sting
Western Athletic Conference · Burns Arena · January 22, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UTU -1.5 Home covered
O/U 144.5 Over
Money UTU -115 / NMSU -111
Model Predictions
Spread Total UTU win
Actual UTU +13 165 Won
Massey UTU -3.1 (+9.9)
Massey Totals 150.2 (+14.8)
Bradley-Terry 71%
Weighted B-T 68%
Baseline Plus ML UTU -2.6 (+10.4) 146.1 (+18.9) 63%
Baseline ML UTU -2.0 (+11.0) 145.6 (+19.4) 66%
Baseline Tuned ML UTU -2.3 (+10.7) 146.0 (+19.0) 64%
Efficiency Plus ML UTU -0.9 (+12.1) 142.7 (+22.3) 63%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 10, 2024 NMSU 7563 UTU
Feb 17, 2022 NMSU 7564 UTU
Feb 11, 2022 NMSU 7769 UTU
Mar 7, 2021 NMSU 6856 UTU
Mar 6, 2021 NMSU 7666 UTU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UTU NMSU
Overall 14-19 9-15
Conference 5-13 2-16
Home 9-5 6-7
Away 3-13 1-12
Neutral 2-1 2-2
Last 5 0-5 0-5
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 73.9 71.2
Avg Pts Against 75.0 75.2
Massey -1.0 (#194) -0.5 (#185)
Bradley-Terry -0.36 (#211) -0.66 (#241)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.47 (#213) -0.48 (#214)
RPI 0.487 (#203) 0.487 (#202)
Shooting & Four Factors UTU NMSU
FG% 43.9% 43.4%
3PT% 36.1% 36.0%
REB / G 34.2 33.2
OREB / G 10.6 9.8
AST / TO 0.82 0.88
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.2% 50.1%
TOV% 21.4% 18.8%
ORB% 31.0% 28.0%
FT Rate 29.8% 23.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 55.7% 53.9%
Opp TOV% 19.4% 19.2%
DRB% 75.6% 71.8%
Opp FT Rate 23.4% 26.4%

Game Analysis

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