Betting Lines
| Spread | UTU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UTU -115 NMSU -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTU +13 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | UTU -3.1 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (+14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTU -0.9 (+12.1) | 142.7 (+22.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTU -2.3 (+10.7) | 146.0 (+19.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTU -2.0 (+11.0) | 145.6 (+19.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTU -2.6 (+10.4) | 146.1 (+18.9) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 10, 2024 | NMSU 75 – 63 UTU |
| Feb 17, 2022 | NMSU 75 – 64 UTU |
| Feb 11, 2022 | NMSU 77 – 69 UTU |
| Mar 7, 2021 | NMSU 68 – 56 UTU |
| Mar 6, 2021 | NMSU 76 – 66 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 9-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 2-16 |
| Home | 9-5 | 6-7 |
| Away | 3-13 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#194) | -0.5 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#211) | -0.66 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#213) | -0.48 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#203) | 0.487 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.