Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UTU +700 NMSU -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +10 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | NMSU -9.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -9.1 (-0.9) | 136.9 (+5.1) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -7.4 (-2.6) | 138.0 (+4.0) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -7.0 (-3.0) | 139.3 (+2.7) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -8.1 (-1.9) | 138.1 (+3.9) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 10, 2024 | NMSU 75 – 63 UTU |
| Jan 22, 2023 | UTU 89 – 76 NMSU |
| Feb 17, 2022 | NMSU 75 – 64 UTU |
| Feb 11, 2022 | NMSU 77 – 69 UTU |
| Mar 7, 2021 | NMSU 68 – 56 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-13 | 12-8 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 7-6 |
| Home | 5-7 | 3-2 |
| Away | 3-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.2 | 65.4 |
| Massey | -12.6 (#330) | -0.6 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#309) | -1.34 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.57 (#315) | -1.25 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#301) | 0.446 (#268) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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