We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
Western Athletic Conference · Burns Arena · March 7, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread NMSU -12.5 Home covered
O/U 139.5 Under
Money UTU +750 / NMSU -900
Model Predictions
Spread Total UTU win
Actual NMSU +12 124 Lost
Massey NMSU -9.7 (-2.3)
Massey Totals 140.0 (-16.0)
Bradley-Terry 41%
Weighted B-T 25%
Baseline Plus ML NMSU -8.9 (-3.1) 137.7 (-13.7) 20%
Baseline ML NMSU -7.2 (-4.8) 138.5 (-14.5) 21%
Baseline Tuned ML NMSU -7.2 (-4.8) 138.8 (-14.8) 23%
Efficiency Plus ML NMSU -9.3 (-2.7) 136.2 (-12.2) 19%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 10, 2024 NMSU 7563 UTU
Jan 22, 2023 UTU 8976 NMSU
Feb 17, 2022 NMSU 7564 UTU
Feb 11, 2022 NMSU 7769 UTU
Mar 6, 2021 NMSU 7666 UTU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UTU NMSU
Overall 8-13 12-8
Conference 4-10 7-6
Home 5-7 3-2
Away 3-6 5-5
Neutral 0-0 3-1
Last 5 2-3 4-1
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 67.6 69.2
Avg Pts Against 78.2 65.4
Massey -12.4 (#329) -0.2 (#170)
Bradley-Terry -1.92 (#316) -1.13 (#260)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.62 (#320) -1.07 (#249)
RPI 0.420 (#306) 0.458 (#246)
Shooting & Four Factors UTU NMSU
FG% 40.7% 40.8%
3PT% 29.4% 31.0%
REB / G 34.4 36.0
OREB / G 9.5 13.0
AST / TO 0.95 1.09
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.7% 48.3%
TOV% 20.8% 17.7%
ORB% 24.9% 36.5%
FT Rate 26.0% 21.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.0% 51.6%
Opp TOV% 19.4% 18.4%
DRB% 67.2% 74.4%
Opp FT Rate 24.3% 21.9%

Game Analysis

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