Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -16.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +11 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -15.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -14.2 (-3.2) | 142.4 (-3.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -12.9 (-1.9) | 143.5 (-4.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -13.9 (-2.9) | 142.5 (-3.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -13.1 (-2.1) | 142.5 (-3.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 10, 2024 | NMSU 75 – 63 UTU |
| Jan 22, 2023 | UTU 89 – 76 NMSU |
| Feb 11, 2022 | NMSU 77 – 69 UTU |
| Mar 7, 2021 | NMSU 68 – 56 UTU |
| Mar 6, 2021 | NMSU 76 – 66 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 10-3 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#96) | -7.3 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#50) | -0.68 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#63) | -1.17 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#28) | 0.478 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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