If I had my time again / I would do it all the same. "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
Western Athletic Conference · Burns Arena · February 11, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread NMSU -10.5 Home covered
O/U 144.5 Over
Money UTU +450 / NMSU -650
Model Predictions
Spread Total UTU win
Actual NMSU +8 146 Lost
Massey NMSU -11.0 (+3.0)
Massey Totals 144.0 (+2.0)
Bradley-Terry 7%
Weighted B-T 6%
Baseline Plus ML NMSU -11.3 (+3.3) 141.8 (+4.2) 21%
Baseline ML NMSU -10.6 (+2.6) 141.5 (+4.5) 20%
Baseline Tuned ML NMSU -10.3 (+2.3) 142.4 (+3.6) 18%
Efficiency Plus ML NMSU -9.8 (+1.8) 143.4 (+2.6) 22%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 10, 2024 NMSU 7563 UTU
Jan 22, 2023 UTU 8976 NMSU
Feb 17, 2022 NMSU 7564 UTU
Mar 7, 2021 NMSU 6856 UTU
Mar 6, 2021 NMSU 7666 UTU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UTU NMSU
Overall 13-18 27-7
Conference 6-12 14-4
Home 10-6 13-2
Away 3-11 10-3
Neutral 0-1 5-2
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L4 L1
Avg Pts For 68.1 70.7
Avg Pts Against 76.1 64.9
Massey -8.1 (#301) 6.0 (#90)
Bradley-Terry -0.92 (#252) 2.19 (#36)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.27 (#261) 2.13 (#56)
RPI 0.463 (#232) 0.608 (#27)
Shooting & Four Factors UTU NMSU
FG% 41.2% 45.6%
3PT% 29.9% 32.8%
REB / G 36.3 37.3
OREB / G 10.7 10.2
AST / TO 0.95 0.94
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.8% 52.5%
TOV% 21.0% 20.7%
ORB% 28.0% 32.0%
FT Rate 25.4% 26.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.0% 44.9%
Opp TOV% 18.3% 15.9%
DRB% 72.3% 74.6%
Opp FT Rate 21.6% 22.0%

Game Analysis

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