Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UTU +450 NMSU -650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +8 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | NMSU -11.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -9.8 (+1.8) | 143.4 (+2.6) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -10.3 (+2.3) | 142.4 (+3.6) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -10.6 (+2.6) | 141.5 (+4.5) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -11.3 (+3.3) | 141.8 (+4.2) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 10, 2024 | NMSU 75 – 63 UTU |
| Jan 22, 2023 | UTU 89 – 76 NMSU |
| Feb 17, 2022 | NMSU 75 – 64 UTU |
| Mar 7, 2021 | NMSU 68 – 56 UTU |
| Mar 6, 2021 | NMSU 76 – 66 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 14-4 |
| Home | 10-6 | 13-2 |
| Away | 3-11 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 64.9 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#301) | 6.0 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#252) | 2.19 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#261) | 2.13 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#232) | 0.608 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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