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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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87–37 on winners spread MAE 8.5 124 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Mount St. Mary's @ Siena +8.1 134.2 80% 57–72 ✓
Niagara @ Rider +3.9 130.5 70% 62–65 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Marist +3.3 127.0 61% 61–57 ✗
Iona @ Manhattan -12.8 141.8 16% 84–76 ✓
Canisius @ Fairfield +2.2 134.0 60% 58–67 ✓
Villanova @ St. John's +5.6 151.9 67% 57–49 ✗
VCU @ Richmond +0.4 134.1 49% 74–62 ✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Saint Francis +4.8 138.8 73% 61–87 ✓
Stonehill @ Long Island University -9.6 139.3 14% 73–66 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Wagner +3.6 130.1 57% 50–72 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Fairleigh Dickinson +4.7 151.7 67% 92–85 ✗
Toledo @ Buffalo -1.9 168.4 42% 86–77 ✓
Boise State @ New Mexico +2.4 144.3 65% 79–81 ✓
Georgetown @ Xavier +16.8 157.0 90% 82–95 ✓
Miami @ Duke +5.1 147.5 75% 66–68 ✓
Charleston @ Northeastern -7.5 142.1 19% 87–61 ✓
Ole Miss @ Arkansas +9.4 137.5 78% 57–69 ✓
UCF @ South Florida -5.4 143.1 31% 72–85 ✗
Syracuse @ Georgia Tech -0.1 142.5 45% 80–63 ✓
George Mason @ Rhode Island -2.0 139.8 41% 79–72 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ IU Indianapolis -11.8 151.6 14% 89–77 ✓
Dayton @ George Washington -4.7 137.5 27% 69–76 ✗
TCU @ Kansas +6.7 146.5 75% 83–60 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Boston University +7.7 132.0 74% 53–66 ✓
New Hampshire @ UMBC +6.0 142.0 76% 69–80 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Georgia +2.9 141.7 65% 85–82 ✗
Massachusetts @ Saint Joseph's +0.6 147.7 53% 68–74 ✓
The Citadel @ VMI +0.2 147.6 53% 60–52 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Stony Brook -5.6 128.6 25% 62–51 ✓
Navy @ Army +3.0 144.0 64% 77–71 ✗
UCLA @ Arizona +0.1 148.1 59% 52–58 ✓
Virginia @ Wake Forest -0.6 139.0 45% 76–67 ✓
Iowa State @ Oklahoma State -1.1 124.3 44% 59–61 ✗
Texas Tech @ Kansas State +7.8 150.0 78% 58–68 ✓
Holy Cross @ Bucknell +5.4 134.4 71% 80–73 ✗
American University @ Colgate +7.3 144.0 79% 61–62 ✓
Northern Iowa @ UIC -2.8 138.5 37% 78–72 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Missouri State +1.7 127.3 54% 61–57 ✗
Boston College @ Notre Dame +4.1 138.5 68% 84–72 ✗
Cornell @ Harvard -1.0 146.4 40% 89–95 ✗
Dartmouth @ Princeton +14.0 138.2 86% 90–93 ✓
Iowa @ Ohio State +3.0 155.5 69% 77–93 ✓
Texas A&M @ Kentucky +3.3 141.7 69% 67–76 ✓
Fordham @ Duquesne +6.1 142.1 75% 65–58 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ UNC Asheville +8.4 136.5 81% 58–64 ✓
Longwood @ Presbyterian -8.1 132.4 20% 58–56 ✓
High Point @ Radford +9.5 142.0 84% 80–95 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Winthrop -2.0 137.8 39% 63–61 ✓
Central Michigan @ Ohio +8.8 140.8 79% 68–96 ✓
South Alabama @ Coastal Carolina -1.8 141.4 44% 81–85 ✗
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota -12.5 147.9 15% 84–72 ✓
Kansas City @ North Dakota State +2.7 137.0 64% 75–73 ✗
Omaha @ South Dakota +0.6 142.2 54% 68–84 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ William & Mary +1.9 139.7 58% 90–86 ✗
Delaware @ Drexel +4.6 130.9 69% 74–77 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Stetson +10.6 142.5 86% 81–87 ✓
Queens University @ Jacksonville +2.1 139.2 67% 70–77 ✓
Liberty @ North Florida -11.5 141.6 15% 73–62 ✓
DePaul @ Providence +11.7 150.2 85% 64–75 ✓
Nebraska @ Penn State +6.4 136.8 78% 65–76 ✓
La Salle @ Saint Louis +12.7 147.7 86% 71–84 ✓
Akron @ Western Michigan -7.2 143.2 22% 63–55 ✓
Hampton @ Monmouth -0.6 137.5 39% 83–66 ✓
Florida State @ Pittsburgh +11.9 144.8 86% 71–64 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Chattanooga +8.8 144.8 79% 78–62 ✗
Marshall @ Arkansas State -12.7 139.0 15% 87–78 ✓
James Madison @ Southern Miss +2.2 147.0 61% 70–83 ✓
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern +2.3 133.4 61% 52–58 ✓
St. Thomas @ Western Illinois +0.9 147.3 53% 56–60 ✓
Denver @ South Dakota State +7.8 143.7 79% 61–76 ✓
Auburn @ South Carolina -14.4 136.0 13% 81–66 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan -0.6 149.3 43% 88–67 ✓
Tennessee @ LSU -14.7 133.0 14% 77–56 ✓
Marquette @ Seton Hall +0.4 143.5 54% 74–53 ✗
Baylor @ Oklahoma -0.2 146.5 47% 62–60 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Jackson State +7.3 143.4 80% 66–70 ✓
Delaware State @ North Carolina Central +13.3 139.2 88% 55–74 ✓
Drake @ Evansville -12.3 138.9 14% 97–61 ✓
Belmont @ Bradley +7.0 142.0 72% 78–76 ✗
Columbia @ Brown +10.2 138.2 86% 85–97 ✓
Florida International @ UTSA -0.7 147.8 46% 77–72 ✓
North Texas @ UAB +3.3 137.4 56% 63–52 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ Loyola Chicago -4.0 136.5 32% 55–67 ✗
Mercer @ UNC Greensboro +8.5 129.9 78% 48–59 ✓
Towson @ Elon -8.1 134.1 17% 66–62 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Riverside +1.7 133.8 58% 67–63 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona -4.3 148.1 33% 79–76 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Austin Peay -3.5 141.8 33% 74–59 ✓
Colorado State @ Wyoming -1.2 148.2 46% 57–58 ✗
Norfolk State @ Coppin State -2.5 153.0 34% 96–65 ✓
Morgan State @ Howard -0.1 148.5 53% 56–88 ✗
Nicholls @ McNeese -1.7 143.0 41% 71–68 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ UT Martin +7.2 143.9 79% 78–91 ✓
Tennessee State @ Little Rock -0.4 149.2 44% 77–89 ✗
Morehead State @ Lindenwood -0.3 138.8 47% 72–63 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ South Carolina State -3.7 150.0 28% 76–70 ✓
East Texas A&M @ SE Louisiana +4.4 146.2 68% 73–79 ✓
Southern Indiana @ SIU Edwardsville +6.1 145.8 73% 82–72 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Louisiana Tech +2.0 141.2 58% 68–51 ✗
NC State @ North Carolina +4.1 153.2 73% 69–80 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Bowling Green +4.8 156.0 71% 73–83 ✓
UL Monroe @ Troy +10.6 134.4 84% 53–77 ✓
Louisiana @ Texas State -1.1 139.8 45% 60–51 ✓
Bellarmine @ Lipscomb +5.1 132.5 74% 49–69 ✓
Northwestern State @ LSU New Orleans -6.7 149.5 27% 88–65 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Sam Houston +15.9 152.7 88% 64–83 ✓
Campbell @ Charleston Southern +2.3 143.0 59% 78–76 ✗
Florida A&M @ Alcorn State +11.9 139.3 88% 47–57 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southeast Missouri State +4.1 151.9 64% 77–84 ✓
Alabama @ Missouri -8.2 161.4 23% 85–64 ✓
Texas @ West Virginia +1.1 147.4 56% 69–61 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Clemson +3.7 145.9 66% 50–51 ✓
Indiana State @ Murray State -1.3 148.1 47% 73–82 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Yale +9.7 144.1 80% 63–70 ✓
UNLV @ Fresno State -3.9 133.1 38% 63–76 ✗
San José State @ Utah State +11.6 143.1 86% 74–75 ✓
Southern Utah @ Seattle U +2.7 152.2 58% 60–81 ✓
Western Carolina @ Samford +8.3 142.5 79% 65–74 ✓
Pepperdine @ Portland +2.1 159.9 65% 76–91 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Northern Kentucky +0.6 133.6 54% 54–74 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Davis +9.5 135.8 82% 63–65 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC San Diego -2.5 143.0 40% 112–110 ✓
Texas Southern @ Alabama A&M +0.7 144.7 44% 70–59 ✗
Southern @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -2.2 144.5 36% 55–62 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.