Come on down and meet your maker. Come on down and take a stand. "The Stand" - The Alarm
← All models

Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
52–24 on winners spread MAE 9.4 76 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue @ Minnesota -12.0 133.8 14% 61–39 ✓
Charleston @ Monmouth -17.8 143.8 11% 69–55 ✓
Wichita State @ Memphis +9.8 139.2 79% 78–88 ✓
Maine @ Vermont +7.1 143.6 79% 45–66 ✓
NJIT @ Bryant +9.4 153.9 80% 75–87 ✓
Binghamton @ UAlbany +2.0 145.1 58% 65–54 ✗
Charlotte @ Middle Tennessee +1.2 130.3 55% 58–62 ✓
Michigan @ Maryland +4.7 141.7 70% 58–64 ✓
The Citadel @ UNC Greensboro +12.0 138.4 87% 60–70 ✓
Mercer @ VMI -3.0 140.7 37% 69–61 ✓
James Madison @ Troy +1.4 141.8 52% 89–87 ✗
UL Monroe @ Georgia Southern +6.4 137.1 72% 72–59 ✗
Georgia State @ Old Dominion +4.6 134.1 69% 58–70 ✓
App State @ Coastal Carolina -2.2 138.6 45% 84–93 ✗
Oakland @ IU Indianapolis -8.3 147.1 20% 83–77 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Wright State +1.0 146.9 52% 88–80 ✗
Cleveland State @ Northern Kentucky +0.2 132.4 46% 56–57 ✓
Northeastern @ Stony Brook +0.4 130.3 47% 79–66 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Hofstra +3.0 137.8 70% 46–70 ✓
William & Mary @ Delaware +5.0 136.4 70% 53–80 ✓
Hampton @ Drexel +15.2 135.6 88% 73–79 ✓
Towson @ North Carolina A&T -2.7 137.9 35% 79–67 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Stetson +3.2 149.3 65% 82–81 ✗
Queens University @ North Florida -2.5 157.0 46% 90–95 ✗
Liberty @ Jacksonville -5.3 125.7 26% 66–52 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Florida Gulf Coast +10.9 137.4 86% 51–55 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Sam Houston +10.3 140.6 83% 71–76 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ UTSA -12.9 145.6 13% 83–64 ✓
Rice @ North Texas +10.3 133.9 79% 72–60 ✗
McNeese @ Nicholls +6.8 143.3 76% 64–73 ✓
East Texas A&M @ LSU New Orleans -1.3 152.5 41% 63–58 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Houston Christian +0.9 150.7 56% 89–78 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ UT Arlington +1.9 145.3 63% 73–85 ✓
South Alabama @ Southern Miss +9.5 136.1 80% 72–76 ✓
Louisiana @ Arkansas State -8.2 139.9 20% 80–71 ✓
Marshall @ Texas State -5.8 137.6 27% 81–73 ✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota State -6.4 150.5 23% 92–69 ✓
Kansas City @ North Dakota -2.8 131.4 39% 60–77 ✗
Omaha @ South Dakota State +8.0 140.2 78% 61–84 ✓
Denver @ South Dakota +1.2 150.7 59% 75–60 ✗
UT Martin @ Southeast Missouri State +5.1 155.7 71% 80–60 ✗
Youngstown State @ Green Bay -17.1 153.7 12% 86–70 ✓
Robert Morris @ Milwaukee +5.2 141.3 75% 69–77 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC Davis +2.4 145.4 62% 74–72 ✗
Idaho @ Northern Arizona +2.4 142.6 59% 88–83 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Northern Colorado -2.7 152.3 35% 83–75 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Lipscomb +2.0 148.1 58% 62–75 ✓
Bellarmine @ Austin Peay +0.1 134.4 48% 56–45 ✗
Northwestern State @ SE Louisiana +0.6 149.5 52% 91–81 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Lamar -9.5 150.6 18% 66–68 ✗
Indiana @ Illinois +5.9 145.5 78% 80–65 ✗
Morehead State @ SIU Edwardsville +11.9 142.2 85% 67–58 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Little Rock -1.8 145.4 37% 77–75 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Gonzaga +13.3 157.5 85% 68–67 ✗
USC @ Arizona +7.6 151.6 77% 66–81 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Louisiana Tech +3.8 141.2 67% 74–85 ✓
Washington State @ Utah +3.5 133.0 66% 63–77 ✓
Washington @ Colorado +7.9 140.6 77% 75–72 ✗
Florida International @ UTEP +5.2 135.0 70% 61–81 ✓
New Mexico State @ Southern Utah +7.1 151.9 78% 76–111 ✓
San Diego @ Portland +4.1 162.9 70% 83–88 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee State +4.3 140.3 72% 74–78 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Lindenwood -2.3 147.5 39% 81–65 ✓
Portland State @ Weber State +1.9 141.6 58% 68–84 ✓
Sacramento State @ Idaho State -0.4 141.9 50% 61–65 ✗
Tarleton State @ Seattle U +5.8 140.4 73% 47–67 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Santa Barbara +12.7 126.8 85% 52–72 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal Poly +2.5 127.1 59% 71–64 ✗
Hawai'i @ UC Irvine +5.0 136.4 69% 68–76 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Long Beach State +1.4 148.7 56% 67–72 ✓
UCLA @ Arizona State -3.2 136.3 44% 74–62 ✓
Oregon State @ Stanford +6.5 133.9 74% 46–67 ✓
Pacific @ San Francisco +7.2 153.0 79% 57–78 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Pepperdine -12.2 140.3 14% 73–44 ✓
BYU @ Santa Clara +3.9 144.7 67% 76–83 ✓
Ball State @ Kent State +9.8 140.6 81% 65–86 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.