Hallelujah, here she comes. "Skateaway" - Dire Straits
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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27–8 on winners spread MAE 8.0 35 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Virginia Tech @ Virginia +7.2 131.5 75% 68–78 ✓
TCU @ West Virginia +2.3 145.8 63% 65–74 ✓
Auburn @ LSU -4.5 135.1 36% 67–49 ✓
Cincinnati @ South Florida -2.7 142.1 36% 85–69 ✓
East Carolina @ Temple +5.4 136.6 72% 58–73 ✓
Colgate @ Holy Cross -9.9 144.5 15% 77–71 ✓
Lafayette @ American University +4.7 131.8 66% 70–59 ✗
Bradley @ Indiana State +1.6 137.8 51% 78–67 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Louisville -13.5 141.6 14% 75–54 ✓
Boston University @ Navy +2.0 141.6 63% 45–63 ✓
Ohio State @ Nebraska -2.5 135.8 41% 60–63 ✗
Florida @ Texas A&M +2.9 141.2 69% 52–54 ✓
Saint Louis @ Loyola Chicago -8.3 149.0 23% 76–59 ✓
Duquesne @ St. Bonaventure -0.1 142.4 47% 56–65 ✗
Presbyterian @ South Carolina Upstate +5.4 138.0 68% 60–61 ✓
Winthrop @ High Point +2.0 151.8 59% 66–71 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Longwood +6.1 132.8 77% 59–64 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Charleston Southern -0.1 150.2 43% 73–63 ✓
Radford @ Campbell -2.3 134.6 39% 63–55 ✓
Wofford @ Western Carolina +1.1 140.6 55% 71–76 ✓
Samford @ East Tennessee State -3.6 141.8 33% 69–59 ✓
Furman @ Chattanooga +3.1 156.1 63% 77–69 ✗
SMU @ Tulsa -1.5 147.6 41% 79–76 ✓
Illinois State @ Northern Iowa +4.7 134.8 71% 63–65 ✓
Missouri State @ Drake +5.9 131.1 74% 65–62 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Utah Valley +12.6 145.4 86% 54–84 ✓
North Alabama @ Central Arkansas +0.6 157.6 47% 78–73 ✗
Xavier @ DePaul -7.9 157.2 22% 72–73 ✗
Providence @ Marquette +5.5 155.6 72% 75–83 ✓
Arkansas @ Missouri +1.8 154.0 58% 76–79 ✓
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State +2.5 130.5 58% 56–72 ✓
Utah Tech @ Grand Canyon +10.7 139.0 84% 85–89 ✓
Oregon @ California -6.6 135.1 28% 87–58 ✓
San Diego State @ Colorado State -2.7 146.6 40% 82–76 ✓
Rutgers @ Michigan State +0.1 128.2 49% 57–70 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.