Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | HPU -110 WIN +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +5 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -3.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.0 (-21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -1.6 (+3.4) | 149.9 (-12.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -1.7 (+3.3) | 147.1 (-10.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -1.7 (+3.3) | 151.9 (-14.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -2.0 (+3.0) | 151.8 (-14.8) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | HPU 91 – 76 WIN |
| Feb 21, 2026 | HPU 89 – 87 WIN |
| Jan 14, 2026 | WIN 92 – 75 HPU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | HPU 81 – 69 WIN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | HPU 88 – 66 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#285) | -6.2 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#265) | -0.73 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#285) | -1.16 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#283) | 0.458 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 62.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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