Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | HPU -290 WIN +235 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +15 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -6.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -5.4 (+9.6) | 157.3 (+9.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -4.6 (+10.4) | 155.5 (+11.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -5.7 (+9.3) | 155.1 (+11.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -5.7 (+9.3) | 152.9 (+14.1) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | HPU 89 – 87 WIN |
| Jan 14, 2026 | WIN 92 – 75 HPU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | HPU 81 – 69 WIN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | HPU 88 – 66 WIN |
| Jan 25, 2025 | HPU 84 – 62 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 13-3 |
| Home | 17-1 | 13-1 |
| Away | 7-2 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#82) | 1.6 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#90) | 0.36 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#103) | 0.30 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#68) | 0.573 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 32.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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