Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
| Money | WIN +140 HPU -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +22 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | HPU -3.0 (-19.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.7 (-13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -2.5 (-19.5) | 158.7 (-4.7) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -1.6 (-20.4) | 158.3 (-4.3) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -1.5 (-20.5) | 161.0 (-7.0) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -1.6 (-20.4) | 159.0 (-5.0) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | HPU 91 – 76 WIN |
| Feb 21, 2026 | HPU 89 – 87 WIN |
| Jan 14, 2026 | WIN 92 – 75 HPU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | HPU 81 – 69 WIN |
| Jan 25, 2025 | HPU 84 – 62 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 14-2 |
| Home | 16-2 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-8 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 81.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#185) | 4.7 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#154) | 1.14 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#158) | 1.32 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#130) | 0.558 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 33.6% | 31.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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