Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | HPU -360 WIN +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +12 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -6.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.2 (-15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -5.6 (+6.4) | 155.8 (-5.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -5.3 (+6.7) | 157.4 (-7.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -5.1 (+6.9) | 156.9 (-6.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -5.0 (+7.0) | 157.2 (-7.2) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | HPU 91 – 76 WIN |
| Feb 21, 2026 | HPU 89 – 87 WIN |
| Jan 14, 2026 | WIN 92 – 75 HPU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | HPU 88 – 66 WIN |
| Jan 25, 2025 | HPU 84 – 62 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 11-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 16-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.2 | 82.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 79.8 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#89) | -0.0 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#71) | 0.56 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#76) | 0.56 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#51) | 0.538 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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