Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Over |
| Money | HPU -455 WIN +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +2 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -9.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.3 (+8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -9.2 (-7.2) | 161.5 (+14.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -8.7 (-6.7) | 159.2 (+16.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -8.8 (-6.8) | 157.6 (+18.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -7.8 (-5.8) | 159.5 (+16.5) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | HPU 91 – 76 WIN |
| Jan 14, 2026 | WIN 92 – 75 HPU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | HPU 81 – 69 WIN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | HPU 88 – 66 WIN |
| Jan 25, 2025 | HPU 84 – 62 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 13-3 |
| Home | 17-1 | 13-1 |
| Away | 7-2 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#75) | 1.9 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#98) | 0.48 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#105) | 0.36 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#86) | 0.570 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 32.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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