Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | HPU -500 WIN +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +22 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -8.8 (+13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.2 (-20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -9.1 (+12.9) | 161.0 (-15.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -9.6 (+12.4) | 159.6 (-13.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -9.2 (+12.8) | 160.9 (-14.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -8.8 (+13.2) | 160.8 (-14.8) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | HPU 91 – 76 WIN |
| Feb 21, 2026 | HPU 89 – 87 WIN |
| Jan 14, 2026 | WIN 92 – 75 HPU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | HPU 81 – 69 WIN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | HPU 88 – 66 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 11-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 16-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.2 | 82.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 79.8 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#104) | -1.5 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#115) | 0.07 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#114) | -0.02 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#132) | 0.506 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 33.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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