Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -250 VT +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +10 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -7.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.7 (+19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -6.1 (+3.9) | 130.7 (+15.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -7.4 (+2.6) | 127.0 (+19.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -7.1 (+2.9) | 130.1 (+15.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -7.2 (+2.8) | 131.5 (+14.5) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UVA 76 – 72 VT |
| Dec 31, 2025 | VT 95 – 85 UVA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UVA 73 – 70 VT |
| Feb 1, 2025 | VT 75 – 74 UVA |
| Feb 20, 2024 | VT 75 – 41 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 8-12 |
| Home | 15-1 | 13-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.5 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#24) | 8.9 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#12) | 1.35 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.63 (#10) | 1.86 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#15) | 0.569 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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