Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -190 VT +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +1 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -4.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.7 (+26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -4.5 (-5.5) | 127.9 (+21.1) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -4.9 (-5.9) | 125.8 (+23.2) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -3.5 (-4.5) | 127.6 (+21.4) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -4.2 (-5.2) | 128.9 (+20.1) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UVA 76 – 72 VT |
| Dec 31, 2025 | VT 95 – 85 UVA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UVA 73 – 70 VT |
| Feb 20, 2024 | VT 75 – 41 UVA |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UVA 65 – 57 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-7 | 8-9 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#123) | 0.9 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#131) | 0.09 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#127) | 0.08 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#152) | 0.489 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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