Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | VT +210 UVA -258 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +10 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -3.0 (+13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (+20.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -0.2 (+9.8) | 152.6 (+27.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -1.3 (+11.3) | 152.0 (+28.0) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -0.8 (+10.8) | 151.6 (+28.4) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -0.3 (+10.3) | 151.6 (+28.4) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UVA 76 – 72 VT |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UVA 73 – 70 VT |
| Feb 1, 2025 | VT 75 – 74 UVA |
| Feb 20, 2024 | VT 75 – 41 UVA |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UVA 65 – 57 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 30-6 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#71) | 15.7 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#43) | 2.53 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#51) | 3.47 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#27) | 0.581 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 41.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 14.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.73 | 1.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 58.3% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 42.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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