Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | VT -120 UVA +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +3 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | VT -0.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.6 (+17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -0.2 (-2.8) | 131.9 (+11.1) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -0.6 (-3.6) | 132.4 (+10.6) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -0.7 (-3.7) | 133.9 (+9.1) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -0.1 (-3.1) | 133.8 (+9.2) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UVA 76 – 72 VT |
| Dec 31, 2025 | VT 95 – 85 UVA |
| Feb 1, 2025 | VT 75 – 74 UVA |
| Feb 20, 2024 | VT 75 – 41 UVA |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UVA 65 – 57 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-9 | 10-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#136) | 4.0 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#140) | 0.66 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#154) | 1.07 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#176) | 0.520 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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