Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -213 VT +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +8 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -2.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -1.9 (+6.1) | 124.6 (-2.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -2.1 (+5.9) | 121.8 (+0.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -2.2 (+5.8) | 124.4 (-2.4) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -1.8 (+6.2) | 126.0 (-4.0) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UVA 76 – 72 VT |
| Dec 31, 2025 | VT 95 – 85 UVA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UVA 73 – 70 VT |
| Feb 1, 2025 | VT 75 – 74 UVA |
| Feb 20, 2024 | VT 75 – 41 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.8 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#76) | 8.8 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#65) | 1.45 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#75) | 2.01 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#74) | 0.574 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.86 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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