Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | VT -175 UVA +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +34 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | VT -2.6 (+31.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -2.3 (+31.7) | 130.1 (-14.1) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -2.8 (+31.2) | 129.5 (-13.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -2.4 (+31.6) | 131.8 (-15.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -3.1 (+30.9) | 130.5 (-14.5) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UVA 76 – 72 VT |
| Dec 31, 2025 | VT 95 – 85 UVA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UVA 73 – 70 VT |
| Feb 1, 2025 | VT 75 – 74 UVA |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UVA 65 – 57 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-10 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 59.8 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#65) | 9.6 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#71) | 2.18 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#64) | 2.18 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#83) | 0.594 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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