Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -750 VT +525 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -10.4 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -11.7 (-7.7) | 150.6 (-2.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -10.9 (-6.9) | 150.1 (-2.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -11.1 (-7.1) | 148.7 (-0.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -11.0 (-7.0) | 150.3 (-2.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | VT 95 – 85 UVA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UVA 73 – 70 VT |
| Feb 1, 2025 | VT 75 – 74 UVA |
| Feb 20, 2024 | VT 75 – 41 UVA |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UVA 65 – 57 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-6 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 16-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 18.1 (#21) | 10.7 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.57 (#10) | 1.99 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.35 (#11) | 2.56 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#15) | 0.579 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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