Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | SBU +110 DUQ -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +9 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | DUQ -0.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (-18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -0.3 (+9.3) | 141.9 (-20.9) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -1.0 (+8.0) | 140.7 (-19.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -0.0 (+9.0) | 142.2 (-21.2) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -0.1 (+9.1) | 142.4 (-21.4) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | DUQ 78 – 73 SBU |
| Jan 29, 2026 | SBU 87 – 79 DUQ |
| Mar 13, 2025 | SBU 64 – 59 DUQ |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SBU 70 – 63 DUQ |
| Jan 18, 2025 | DUQ 75 – 57 SBU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 16-4 |
| Away | 2-11 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#172) | 3.7 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#189) | 0.96 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#175) | 1.07 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#181) | 0.553 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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