Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | SBU -240 DUQ +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +7 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -7.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -5.5 (+1.5) | 130.8 (+2.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -5.8 (+1.2) | 129.1 (+3.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -5.4 (+1.6) | 130.0 (+3.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -5.9 (+1.1) | 130.8 (+2.2) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | DUQ 78 – 73 SBU |
| Jan 29, 2026 | SBU 87 – 79 DUQ |
| Mar 13, 2025 | SBU 64 – 59 DUQ |
| Jan 18, 2025 | DUQ 75 – 57 SBU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | DUQ 70 – 60 SBU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-4 | 9-7 |
| Away | 7-6 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#101) | 0.5 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#98) | -0.42 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#90) | -0.11 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#79) | 0.482 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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