Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | DUQ +115 SBU -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +18 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -3.0 (+21.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -3.3 (+21.3) | 133.7 (-1.7) | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -1.0 (+19.0) | 132.0 (+0.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -2.1 (+20.1) | 132.7 (-0.7) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -3.2 (+21.2) | 132.6 (-0.6) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | DUQ 78 – 73 SBU |
| Jan 29, 2026 | SBU 87 – 79 DUQ |
| Mar 13, 2025 | SBU 64 – 59 DUQ |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SBU 70 – 63 DUQ |
| Mar 16, 2024 | DUQ 70 – 60 SBU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-7 | 12-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#154) | 7.5 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#199) | 1.63 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#167) | 2.37 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#168) | 0.572 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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