Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | SBU -140 DUQ +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +5 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -2.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -2.8 (+2.2) | 130.5 (-7.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -1.7 (+3.3) | 130.1 (-7.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -2.6 (+2.4) | 130.8 (-7.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -3.3 (+1.7) | 131.3 (-8.3) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | DUQ 78 – 73 SBU |
| Jan 29, 2026 | SBU 87 – 79 DUQ |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SBU 70 – 63 DUQ |
| Jan 18, 2025 | DUQ 75 – 57 SBU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | DUQ 70 – 60 SBU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-4 | 9-7 |
| Away | 7-6 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#101) | 1.5 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#94) | -0.23 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#88) | 0.10 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#75) | 0.497 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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