Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | ETSU +180 SAM -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +10 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -3.4 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (-11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -3.8 (-6.2) | 139.1 (-11.1) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -2.4 (-7.6) | 136.1 (-8.1) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -4.1 (-5.9) | 140.3 (-12.3) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -3.6 (-6.4) | 141.8 (-13.8) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | SAM 82 – 72 ETSU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | ETSU 76 – 75 SAM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ETSU 66 – 59 SAM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ETSU 65 – 60 SAM |
| Mar 11, 2024 | SAM 76 – 69 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 7-9 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#256) | 2.0 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#332) | 0.06 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.10 (#322) | 0.13 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.403 (#336) | 0.493 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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