Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | SAM -270 ETSU +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +5 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -6.6 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.0 (-35.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -6.3 (-11.3) | 148.6 (-23.6) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -6.7 (-11.7) | 150.4 (-25.4) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -6.3 (-11.3) | 152.1 (-27.1) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -5.6 (-10.6) | 151.1 (-26.1) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | SAM 82 – 72 ETSU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | ETSU 76 – 75 SAM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ETSU 66 – 59 SAM |
| Mar 11, 2024 | SAM 76 – 69 ETSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | SAM 87 – 71 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 9-7 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#102) | 1.5 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#59) | -0.37 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#74) | -0.18 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#83) | 0.469 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 38.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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