Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | ETSU -310 SAM +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +10 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | ETSU -9.4 (-19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -8.9 (-18.9) | 146.3 (+7.7) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -6.8 (-16.8) | 143.7 (+10.3) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -8.0 (-18.0) | 145.1 (+8.9) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -7.8 (-17.8) | 146.9 (+7.1) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | ETSU 76 – 75 SAM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ETSU 66 – 59 SAM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ETSU 65 – 60 SAM |
| Mar 11, 2024 | SAM 76 – 69 ETSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | SAM 87 – 71 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 8-6 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#125) | -3.7 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#151) | -0.68 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#153) | -0.87 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#99) | 0.479 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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