Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -600 ETSU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +16 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -14.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -13.3 (+2.7) | 149.0 (+9.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -12.1 (+3.9) | 148.7 (+9.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -13.6 (+2.4) | 149.4 (+8.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -13.4 (+2.6) | 149.8 (+8.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | SAM 82 – 72 ETSU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | ETSU 76 – 75 SAM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ETSU 66 – 59 SAM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ETSU 65 – 60 SAM |
| Mar 11, 2024 | SAM 76 – 69 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 18-0 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.5 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#73) | -2.8 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#39) | -0.16 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#51) | -0.20 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#37) | 0.495 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 40.3% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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