Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | SAM +140 ETSU -166 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +1 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | ETSU -6.6 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -4.7 (+3.7) | 141.8 (+9.2) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -4.8 (+3.8) | 141.2 (+9.8) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -5.3 (+4.3) | 143.2 (+7.8) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -5.2 (+4.2) | 144.1 (+6.9) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | SAM 82 – 72 ETSU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ETSU 66 – 59 SAM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ETSU 65 – 60 SAM |
| Mar 11, 2024 | SAM 76 – 69 ETSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | SAM 87 – 71 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#266) | 3.5 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#256) | -0.23 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#260) | -0.19 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#262) | 0.486 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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